Wie jeder seit einigen Wochen vermutet, ist ein Krieg zwischen der Hisbollah und Israel nur eine Frage der Zeit. Ich denke, dass Israel vor Juli mit Luftangriffen ähnlich denen im Gazastreifen beginnen könnte, dann Aufklärungstruppen einmarschieren lassen und dann die reguläre Armee einmarschieren lassen könnte.
https://old.reddit.com/r/geopolitics/comments/1diy7g7/war_between_hezbollah_and_israel_is_imminent/
7 Comments
The start of July is going to be interesting.
Do you think the IDF will see this post and then hire you as a strategy consultant? Otherwise what’s the point here? Get people riled up because Israel invokes strong feelings?
It probably makes sense now – the major fighting in the Gaza strip has already happened, what’s left is a lot of guerilla that doesn’t necessarily need a huge amount of attention. Israel can move its troops to basically re-take northern Israel, that’s been evacuated due to Hezbollah performing war crimes as usual.
I think Israel made a huge mistake not raising the roof of the UN shouting about the laughable ineffectiveness of the UN peace-keeping force in Lebanon. At the very least Israel would have earned some PR points, but it would also justify multi-national action in Lebanon. This would have been easier on the dwindling resources of Israel and more hopeful for Lebanon.
I feel that if Hezbollah doesn’t back down, the war is going to end with the entirety of southern Lebanon being evacuated from civilians. I really doubt that the IDF will make the attempt to surgically pacify Lebanese towns from which rockets are being fired into Israel, my guess is that the towns will just be evacuated and destroyed.
Edit: I left out an important aspect of the war – damage to Israel. Hezbollah has accumulated a huge amount of rockets and some of them are advanced enough to hit strategic Israeli targets. It’s anyone’s guess how much damage Hezbollah is going to be able to inflict if they decide to hit with everything they have. If this happens, assuming Israel still has an air force, Beirut is going to look like it’s 2006 again.
Netanyahu started the holy war to cover his corruption. Now Israelis pay the price.
Only the truth can set anyone free now.
I don’t think the IDF in its current state has the capacity to stage a significant ground operation in Lebanon, unless they’re ok with a lot more casualties than they are used to. Definitely expecting a more intensive air campaign though as well as smaller raids by special forces.
For all intents and purposes they already are at war. The whole North is evacuated and they have been laughing missiles and drones into Israel — Israel has been bombing them back
Nothing ever happens